9 Dead In Kashmir On War Anniversary

Today marks the 50th anniversary of the beginning of the 1965 war between India and Pakistan. This was a highly destructive war which took the lives of thousands of soldiers on both sides despite there being no large-scale changes to territorial control. What’s more, the 1965 war set the stage for a much larger and more deadly war in 1971, which led to thousands more deaths. This 1965 Indo-Pakistani war, as well as every following conflict, was fought over the disputed region of Kashmir, part of which is controlled by India and the other by Pakistan. These regions are separated by a no-mans land called the Line of Control (LOC) which is one of the most dangerous borders in the world.

Indian and Pakistani troops very often fire across the LOC at one another, mostly with small arms but also often with heavier artillery and mortars. As well, proxy militias operated by each side conduct guerrilla raids on the forces of the opposing nation, making the area yet more dangerous. Such attacks have killed tens of soldiers and civilians since the start of this year.

https://youtu.be/IMrx0m_YbOE

Just today, 50 years on from the first war over this disputed region, another deadly incident occurred. According to reports, soldiers from both sides of the LOC began to fire artillery shells. Unfortunately, like in many previous incidents, it was the civilians living in the area near the border that paid the price.

According to Pakistani Inter Service Public Relations (ISPR), at least 6 Pakistani civilians in the town of Sialkot were killed, and another 40 injured. This attack was labelled as “unprovoked firing and shelling in Charwa Sector near the Sialkot Working Boundary”. The Pakistani military also confirmed that it had “returned fire” on Indian positions.

On the other side, 3 civilians were killed and 17 injured. India’s Border Security Force (BSF) also claimed that it was merely returning fire.

“Pakistan Rangers resorted to unprovoked firing. Initially, small were used but later mortar bombs were shelled on BSF posts and civilian areas,” a BSF spokesperson reportedly said. “The BSF also gave a fitting reply.”

Putting aside the human tragedy of this situation, and the callous rhetoric applied by both sides, renewed fighting in Kashmir is a hugely worrisome geopolitical issue. Both sides in this conflict are nuclear-armed and field massive standing armies. While they have a lot to lose from a breakout of intensified fighting, both also are still unafraid to ratchet up the regional tension in order to appease voters and their respective military establishments.

Within such an environment it only takes a single mistake, or a single cross-border incident that gets out of hand, to set the entire region alight. Previously, we have labelled this the ‘Most Dangerous Border in the World’, and indeed, it is a title that is well-deserved.

China’s Crash Complicates Its Peaceful Rise

Over the last month the Chinese stock market has seen massive day-on-day falls representing a loss of billions of dollars of value, and the rapid deflation of certain sectors of its economy. This combined with a number of other factors could give rise to a dynamic where the country may need to become more belligerent in order to maintain internal order. The crash of China’s stock market is just one of several factors which belie serious concerns for the country’s future economic growth. While the market itself does not have strong links with China’s ‘real economy’, there is mounting evidence that China is slowing down at a faster rate than its leadership can control. Among the most damning evidence of this is a recent index showing manufacturing at its lowest levels since the Global Financial Crisis. Furthermore, recent reports from China’s provinces show massive levels of debt, slowing growth and a significant over-reliance on the so-called ‘shadow banking’ sector.

Barring a dramatic collapse of the Chinese economy, which at this stage still seems improbable, it is likely that Chinese growth will continue to contract. The country’s government is already preparing for this, with a the promotion of the ‘New Normal’ (新常态) – a transition to a lower-growth, consumption-based economy. While this rebranding effort might appease some, it shows just how concerned the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is with the perceived failure of its economic mandate.

Fundamental to the modern CCP is the concept of the Harmonious Society ( 和谐社会), an idea which enshrines stability as the core goal of the government. Effectively every action the CCP takes, from its internet censorship to its aggressive market interventions, is undertaken with this in mind. Should large numbers of Chinese people lose their manufacturing jobs, or their savings through a property/stock market crash, this would cause massive internal instability.

Within this dynamic, alongside an internal crackdown, the Chinese government would likely eye moves which could unite the country through nationalism. Among the most alarming of these are possible aggressive moves in the South China Sea, and the Diaoyu Islands. These could involve provoking neighbors like Japan and Vietnam into a small-scale skirmish to distract from internal unrest. Other less likely locations for such posturing would be the Indian border in the Kashmir region, an area home to recent Sino/Indian disputes, and the Chinese border with Myanmar, scene of a deadly cross border incident earlier this year.

The goal of any such provocations would not be to conquer territory or indeed even to gain international diplomatic capital, but rather simply to bolster internal stability against a foreign threat. Despite this, there is a very clear escalation risk that comes with such moves. Accordingly, the Chinese economy would have to be in a significantly poorer state than it is now, before the CCP would be willing to risk such a step.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-r6msOg-d78

Nevertheless, the risks of Chinese “aggression” in key areas will continue to rise for as long as the Chinese economy continues to sink. Surrounding nations would do well to better understand Chinese actions, and either beef up defenses in potential flashpoints, or indeed play for an appeasement strategy which accommodates possible aggression from China that doesn’t pose a real threat to their core territories.

China has long stated that its economic rise was a peaceful one, but with its economy no longer rising so fast, will its promise of peace also disappear?

Don’t Stress. ISIS Can’t Buy A Nuclear Weapon

In this month’s issue of ISIS’s glitzy ‘Dabiq’ magazine, an article attributed to high-profile hostage and former journalist John Cantile claims that ISIS has the ability to purchase a nuclear weapon. It could allegedly do this in Pakistan with its “billions of dollars in the bank” using “weapons dealers with links to corrupt officials in the region”. While there are very real reasons why people concern themselves about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, the likelihood that one could be sold to ISIS is laughably small. Pakistan currently has an arsenal of approximately 120 nuclear warheads, many of which are attached to ballistic missile delivery systems. This stockpile of weapons which was developed in order to counter a similar nuclear weapons program in India continues to grow and become more sophisticated.

Concurrently, militants also launched 3 other attacks in the area, including a grenade attack which killed 2 civilians. While the exact nature of the militants are unknown, the area has a long history of terror attacks by Islamic militant groups which are accused by the Indian government of being backed by Pakistan.

Indeed the Indian media has been reporting that the fighters involved in yesterday’s attack were found to have food, information and munitions on their person which had clearly originated in Pakistan. Speaking on this issue, Reuters quoted the Home Minister Rajnath Singh as saying: “These terrorists keep coming from Pakistan, [...] Pakistan should make an effort to stop them."

IMAGES: Aftermath of base attack in #Kashmir. Militants had large amount of food, ammo & guns. #Pakistan supplies. pic.twitter.com/u3eRfQvBFH

— Military Studies (@ArmedResearch) December 5, 2014

Given this, the attack on the Indian military which resulted in the army’s largest personnel losses for 6 years, is sure to ratchet up tensions between the nuclear-armed states. Over the past year cross border incidents have killed tens of people, with one particularly bad incident in October killing at least 15 people over a 3 day period. In addition to this, a massive bombing on the Pakistani side of the border at Wagah last month killed 60 people, and left countless more injured.

Clearly, there is a trend towards increasing escalation along the India/Pakistan border. With new politicians on either side not willing to compromise in terms of security, all that the region needs is single incident which could throw both sides into an escalating series of reprisals leading to all-out war. While the world’s attention is distracted by events in Syria, Iraq and Ukraine, the most dangerous place in the world, isn't getting safer...