Russia Hits Back At Turkey Following Jet Shootdown

Since the shootdown of a Russian Su-24 by the Turkish Air Force on the 24th of November, Russia has escalated its bombing campaign in Syria against rebel groups in the north of Syria, including ones the US calls ‘moderate forces’. Some of these groups have the backing of the US & Turkey and have been actively fighting against both the Assad regime and ISIS for some time.   Following Russia’s intervention in the war, the number of deadly airstrikes have increased targeting both rebels and also truck convoys moving across the border from Turkey into Syria which allegedly carried aid. Russia has as stepped up its attacks in areas close to the Turkish border that are home to a large number of Turkmen, seen by Turkey as their ethnic brethren.

As well as bombing, Russia has committed heavier and more sophisticated hardware to the region, including the S-400 anti aircraft system. Although there was some evidence that suggested that the S-400 was in the country already, Russia only revealed the system after the shootdown of the Russian jet. Furthermore, Russia has also started arming some of their fighter/bomber aircraft with air to air missiles for ‘defence’ and has deployed the guided missile cruiser ‘Moskva’ to the region, in order to provide additional anti-aircraft protection.

Aside from these direct military deployments, Russia has been hitting back at Turkey in other ways, such as arresting Turkish businessmen, banning Russian football clubs from signing Turkish players and seizing Turkish cargo ships. The Russian government has even gone so far as to pursue economic sanctions against Turkey, and discouraging Russian tourists from visiting.

The Turkish Safe Zone In Northern Syria

While Turkey has a very controversial relationship with the Syrian conflict through its support and alleged military aid for various Islamist rebel factions, over the past few months it has talked about establishing what it calls a ‘safe zone’ in Northern Syria. Turkish President Erdogan has many times threatened to create such a zone, however has remained rather vague about how it could be established. The zone itself would stretch over much of the north of Aleppo Governorate in Syria, in a roughly 45km strip between the Euphrates River and the YPG/SDF controlled Afrin Canton. Many have suggested part of Turkey’s reason for establishing the zone is to prevent a contiguous Kurdish controlled territory across all of Northern Syria.

Originally it was thought that this would be established through a deployment of Turkish ground forces, however this failed to transpire. Then, rhetoric from Turkey suggested that its proxy militias would establish the zone themselves in areas captured for ISIS with air support from Turkish and Coalition jets. This too has yet to see any real success.

Following the shoot-down of a Russian jet by Turkish forces, and Russian bombing of Turkey rebels along the border area, Erdogan has once again revived rhetoric of establishing this safe zone as a way to protect ethnic Turkmen rebels.

The Turkish Safe Zone Operation Has Begun

In the last 24 hours rebel groups within Syria have begun clashing with ISIS positions in the northern part of Aleppo Govenorate. These clashes appear to mark the beginning of an audacious plan created by Turkey to create a so-called ‘Safe Zone’ in northern Syria. This plan would entail the creation of a 98km long and 45km deep buffer zone within Syria, stretching from the edge of the YPG-controlled Afrin Canton, to the ISIS-controlled town of Jarabulus on the Euphrates River. While Turkey does not plan to be sending in its own ‘boots on the ground’ in order to establish this zone, it has promised to support ‘moderate’ rebel groups with air power and long-range artillery.

However, this is much easier said that done. The majority of this planned safe zone is controlled by ISIS forces, and the rebels in the areas also have to devote the bulk of their forces to fighting (or at the very least defending) against regime forces further south, in the Aleppo urban area. So which forces will be involved in the fighting, and what are their capabilities?

The primary groups who will be involved in the fighting are the remnants of the secular Free Syria Army (FSA) alongside the Islamic Front. Together, both of these groups will be working as part of a newly reformed joint operations room called the Levant Front (Jabhat al-Shamiyya).

While these are the primary groups involved, one additional group – Syrian Turkmen – could add additional support to this anti-ISIS coalition. The Syrian Turkmen Brigades are anti-government militias made up of ethnic Turkmen fighters, comprising a number of moderate-sized brigades in the Northern Aleppo countryside. There is strong evidence to suggest that these groups are directly trained and armed by the Turkish government. Reports arose earlier this week of a large group of such fighters openly crossing the Turkish border into Syria, leading further weight to the idea that they are a Turkish proxy army.

As previously mentioned, within the last 24 hours, these groups have already gone on the offensive against ISIS. So far the have been able to push ISIS back form their frontlines in the region and capture some small villages from the group. Despite this however, unless the US or Turkey massively ramp up their air support for Levant Front, it is unlikely that they will be able to rapidly defeat ISIS, and establish this Safe Zone in its entirety.

ISIS depends on this region for cross-border smuggling from Turkey, and should it be lost, the group would find itself almost completely cut off from outside supply. As such, we can expect to see incredibly stiff resistance from the group, and a possible stalling of the Turkish-organized offensive.

When this happens, Turkey will be forced to make the decision on whether to be content with a smaller safe zone, or escalate its involvement, either through more proxy militias and air strikes, or with a small number of regular ground troops. Whatever decision they make will have a significant impact of the overall development of the Syrian Civil War this year.